Forecasting

Scenario modeling with confidence intervals

Expected ARR (EOY)
$5.2M
$4.8M – $5.6M82%
Expected NRR
108%
Churn Forecast
6.2%
Expansion Forecast
14.3%
+2.1%
ARR Forecast
6-month projection with confidence bands
Confidence:82%model
$4.1M$4.9M$5.7MFebMarAprMayJunJulAugTODAY
Base Case
Optimistic
Actual
Scenarios

Compare Outcomes

Sensitivity Analysis
Impact of key variables on forecast
Retention Rate
+$42k ARR per 1%
high
Enterprise Churn
-$85k ARR per 1%
critical
Expansion Rate
+$28k ARR per 1%
medium
New Logo Volume
+$18k ARR per 1%
medium
Key Assumptions
Adjust to see impact
Retention Rate92%
Expansion Rate18%
New Logo Growth15%
Average Deal Size45k
Sales Cycle45days
Forecast Risks
Enterprise retention below target
New logo pipeline lighter than expected
Expansion rate exceeding forecast
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